Tracking 2026 against the hottest year on record
Global monthly surface temperatures for 2026 compared with 2024 — the current warmest year on record — and the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline. Built from official Copernicus C3S/ERA5 and NOAA NCEI monthly climate bulletins, refreshed as each new bulletin is published.
1.5°C threshold watch
How the latest month and the trailing 12-month mean sit against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C aspirational limit, measured from the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
June 2026
WMO/Met Office decadal outlook: 91% chance at least one year between 2026–2030 temporarily exceeds 1.5°C; 75% chance the five-year mean does. This does not itself signal breach of the Paris Agreement, which is defined on a ~20-year sustained basis.
2026 vs. 2024 vs. pre-industrial average
Monthly global mean surface air temperature (°C), ERA5 reanalysis. 2024 is the current record year; the dashed line is the 1850–1900 pre-industrial monthly climatology.
Met Office & WMO forecasts against observed 2026 data
How official seasonal and decadal outlooks compare with what ERA5/NOAA have actually observed so far this year.
Met Office 2026 annual forecast
Central prediction for full-year 2026, issued Dec 2025, above 1850–1900. Would rank 2026 among the four warmest years, just behind 2024.
Observed 2026 YTD (Jan–Jun, C3S)
Average of actual ERA5 monthly anomalies vs. pre-industrial for the months reported so far.
WMO 2026–2030 decadal range
86% chance a year in this window exceeds 2024 as the warmest on record; El Niño tendency flagged for 2027–2028.
2026 monthly anomaly vs. 20th-century mean
NOAA NCEI global land+ocean departures from the 1901–2000 average, with each month's 90th-percentile historical benchmark (1991–2020 window) overlaid.
90th-percentile exceedance log
Fires whenever a 2026 monthly average exceeds the 90th percentile of that calendar month's distribution over the 1991–2020 reference period, in both the Copernicus (pre-industrial basis) and NOAA (20th-century basis) datasets.
| Month · 2026 | C3S vs. pre-industrial | C3S 90th pct. benchmark | NOAA vs. 20th-c. mean | NOAA 90th pct. benchmark | Alert |
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Data sources & definitions
- Copernicus C3S / ERA5 reanalysis — monthly global mean surface air temperature, anomalies relative to both the 1991–2020 average and the 1850–1900 pre-industrial reference. Source: Copernicus Climate Bulletins and June 2026 bulletin.
- NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance — global land+ocean monthly temperature departures from the 1901–2000 (20th-century) average. Source: NOAA Global Time Series.
- Met Office 2026 annual forecast — central prediction and range for full-year 2026 global average temperature above pre-industrial, issued December 2025. Source: Met Office 2026 outlook.
- WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update — five-year (2026–2030) probabilistic outlook produced by the Met Office as WMO Lead Centre. Source: WMO/Met Office decadal update, June 2026.
- 90th-percentile benchmark — computed for each calendar month from the ERA5 (C3S) and NOAA time series restricted to the 1991–2020 reference period, following the same "much above average" percentile convention Copernicus uses in its own bulletins.
- 2024 annual average — 1.60°C above pre-industrial (ERA5) / 1.55°C per WMO consolidated multi-dataset estimate — the current warmest calendar year on record.
This dashboard is refreshed manually against the latest published monthly bulletins (Copernicus and NOAA typically publish 5–9 days into the following month); it is not a direct live feed. Last data refresh: Copernicus bulletin through June 2026 (published 9 Jul 2026); NOAA report through June 2026 (published 8 Jul 2026).